The 2019 and 2023 onion crises pushed Indian mandi prices from ₹20/kg to over ₹80/kg in two weeks. Most owners absorbed the spike. Here's the playbook that protected the ones who saw it coming — and what to do next time.
The signal
Onion price spikes are rarely surprise events. The lead indicators show up 2-4 weeks before retail prices move. Three to watch:
- Maharashtra and Karnataka mandi arrivals — when daily arrivals at Lasalgaon, Pimpalgaon, and Bangalore drop >25% week-on-week.
- MEP changes — when the government announces a Minimum Export Price hike, retail prices typically follow within 14 days.
- Reservoir / kharif rainfall data — deficient rainfall in Sep-Oct in Maharashtra is the largest single predictor of Nov-Jan onion spikes.
When the spike is starting (Week 0-1)
- Lock contracts — call your top 2 suppliers; pay 50-70% of forward 30-day need at current price.
- Pre-prep + freeze — slice 80kg of onion, freeze in 1kg packs. 3-week shelf life; saves the next 3 weeks at current price.
- Audit recipes — every dish that uses raw onion garnish; halve the quantity, replace with sliced spring onion (cheaper, more visual).
When prices are at peak (Week 2-4)
- Menu micro-prune — temporarily 86 the 2-3 dishes most onion-heavy (typically biryani, certain chaats, kababs).
- Substitute with spring onion / shallots — for tarka and garnish. Both fall outside the mandi panic.
- Re-quote aggregator menu — increase prices on onion-heavy dishes by 8-12%. Aggregators allow temporary price changes; use them.
- Communicate with team — kitchen staff over-portion when stressed. A 15-second daily reminder during pre-shift saves 8-10% of the line.
When prices normalise (Week 5+)
Reverse the price hikes within 7 days of mandi prices coming back below ₹40/kg. Restaurants that hold price hikes after the crisis ends lose retention — customers remember the increase, not the context.
What not to do
Don't switch to a single ‘cheap’ supplier mid-crisis. Quality variance shows up as customer complaints. Maintain your top supplier and add a backup; never replace your top supplier under price pressure.
Build the playbook into operations
The goal is to stop reacting and start anticipating. Subscribe to weekly mandi alerts (Forkcast Supply Watch tracks 15+ commodities), and pre-write your 86-list and substitution map for each crisis-prone commodity. The fastest moving crises are also the most predictable.
Test mandi sensitivity on your menu →